Friday, December 28, 2012
Last Post for a While
Friday, April 27, 2012
Hip Hip Hooray
I have a new hip now, courtesy of Southern Orthopedics and Dr Roland Hester. Great job by the surgical team.
I had been in a good deal of pain before the surgery and I had pain after the surgery, but it was dramatically less than before. I used to take nearly a minute to get out of a chair or sit down. (Really!) Now I can pop up and down like a jack-in-the-box.
My mobility is improving daily, thanks to the surgery and some exercises learned at Rehab Select.
Enough about me. I will pontificate at some later time. Cheers.
Sunday, April 04, 2010
He is Risen
Don Francisco did a wonderful song from Peter's perspective called He's Alive. If you have never heard it, please listen and place yourself in Peter's situation.
Once you do that,you will feel, as Jairus did, Gotta Tell Somebody.
Have a Happy Easter, with good reason.
Friday, December 25, 2009
I wish for you a very Merry Christmas
It is also very likely NOT the birthday of Jesus the Christ, but it is a designated day to remember that event. (Shepherds would not likely have been "in the field" in winter.) The event was attended by some celestial signs and visitors, but nobody bothered to mention the actual date. Perhaps the date was considered of less significance than the import of the event. God had visited man - no, God had become a man. The second Adam had been born to redeem us all from the taint left by the first Adam. Good News, indeed.
Here is the major distinction of Christianity from other religions: The way of salvation was invested not in following elaborate rules, but in a Person. Messiah Jesus came not to condemn the world, but to save it. In those hours on the cross, He absorbed all the sins of the world - past, present, and future.
And that is why I can wish you a very Merry Christmas.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Eat Right, Part 3
I would like to follow up on a thread from a previous post. In it I stated that I was mad at the "faith" people. I must admit, I am one of them. There is a general misunderstanding about the teachings of faith. It has been labeled the "name it and claim it" or "blab it and grab it" movement by people who do not really listen to the message. For years Christianity was known as the "Great Confession." Evidently someone was saying something. What folks failed to realize about confession was that it means "saying the same thing (to speak together)." It basically means to agree with YHWH about the situation. Faith begins where the Word of God is known.
Forsaking All I Take Him (at His word) = Faith. False Evidence Appearing Real = Fear. I had an object lesson in this at Disney World of all places. Once upon a time there was a movie called "Mr. Toad's Wild Ride" which Disney turned into an attraction. At one point on the ride the overwhelming physical evidence was that you are on a train track and the train is bearing down on you from in front. The noise, the lights, the shaking all contributed to the effect. That was False Evidence Appearing Real. Now, in spite of the emotional connotations, we knew that Disney would not just run their customers down with a train. If only we had that much faith in YHWH.
YHWH was the only One present at creation. Everyone else has to try and figure what happened by looking at the evidence. The problem with evidence is that we always come to it with our own filters firmly in place. It is a fact that the fossil record does not present one smooth transition from goo to you. Is that because intermediate fossils were somehow lost? Or did they never exist in the first place? The answers to those questions are not a part of the record. Honest people can disagree as to the "correct"answer, because it does not matter to the actual record. The fact is there are gaps. To one person that is proof that gradual evolution did not occur. To another, it is proof that there are things yet to be learned.
And so it is with the "believing God" folks. Some of them are actually trying to believe themselves. That did not work for Satan. (OF course, you could make the argument that he very nearly pulled it off.) Believing God comes down to the quite precise science of … well … believing GOD. Whatever He said must be true. As Mary the Mother of Jesus said, Whatsoever he saith unto you, do it.
Thus endeth the sermon for today.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Insurance, Part 2
At our last juncture, we discussed term insurance, which is the cheapest form of temporary insurance. It is designed to provide for the family in the event of an untimely death before assets can be accumulated. The idea with term insurance is to have a target amount of money that you will have accumulated to provide for the family. Once that target is reached, you would not need the insurance. That target date might be one year, five years, ten or twenty years ahead. The further you have to plan, the more expensive the term insurance becomes (Remember the $27,925 premium at age 70?). Our 23 year old hero from last time could purchase a one million dollar term policy for about $1,510 a year. Based on the tables, he could continue that premium with little increase for about 15 years.
For any business to remain viable, the amount of income must at least equal the amount of expenses. If income is greater than expense, we have profit. If income is less than expense, we have loss. Continue the loss and eventually the company (or household) goes bankrupt. Once the company is bankrupt (as we said before), nobody wins because the claims cannot be paid. Ignoring a whole lot of complicating factors, we can examine what a NO LOSS premium would be for various types of life insurance. [Cash in] = [policyholders] * [premiums]. [Cash out] = [deaths] * [face amount]. Again, if we make all the policies for the same face amount, we can calculate the required premium by setting cash in equal to cash out.
(1) [policyholders]*[premiums]=[deaths]*[faceAmount]
For large numbers of policyholders, the actuarial tables can predict the average number of deaths expected by multiplying the probability of death times the number of policy holders. So equation (1) becomes
(2) [policyholders]*[premiums]=[probability]*policyholders]*[faceAmount]
Dividing the policy holders from both sides we get:
(3) [premiums]=[probability]*[faceAmount]
That is where I got the numbers for the one year term discussion.
The math gets a little more complicated when we look beyond one year, but the concepts are fairly simple. Since only the living can be counted on to pay the premiums, equation (1) becomes
(4) [survivors]*[premiums]*[years]=[deaths]*[faceAmount], which reduces to
(5) [premiums] = ([deaths]*[faceAmount])/([survivors]*[years])
The actuarial tables provide a column of survivors from an original 100,000 population. Looking at the male age 23 column, we see that there are 98,057 survivors. Ten years later, there are 96,663 survivors. In that time, 1394 people died and the company would have paid out $1,000,000 to each death. The 96,663 survivors would have paid the required premiums for ten years. The required premium, then is
[premiums] = (1,394*!,000,000) / (96,663*10) = $1,394,000,000 / 966,630 = $1,442.12
Notice that this premium is actually lower than the initial one-year term premium because of the reduced mortality expectations from age 23 to age 32. It is not until the male reaches 33 that the probability of death exceeds that at 23. You can do the math for ten year level term for a 40 year old and see a big difference. 91,985 survivors would pay premiums for ten years to cover 3,465 deaths.
[premiums] = (3,465 * $1,000,000) / (91,985,*,10) = $3,766.92
Here the premium is larger than the one-year term at 40 ($2,436) but less than the one-year term at 50 ($5,730) because of the increasing mortality. Stay tuned.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Die Anyway, Part 2
I have held a number of jobs in my years: Pin setter in a bowling alley, busboy, caddy, producer and director of a successful after high school play, Air Force officer, college professor, Certified Life Underwriter (CLU) and insurance agent (property, casualty, life, annuities, and mutual funds). I would like to take a few moments of your time to share with you what I know about the insurance industry. This does not properly come under the heading of apologetics, but it is about my life.
First of all, who needs insurance? If you have unlimited assets, you do not need property or liability insurance. Say you live in a modest house of $50,000. If you have financed the home, the lender will require you to carry property insurance. If you paid cash and have at least that much in additional resources, you would not need property insurance as you could absorb a total loss and purchase another one. Similarly with auto insurance. If you have financed the purchase of a new car, the lender will require that you carry insurance. If you paid cash for the car and had enough to purchase another one, you could omit the collision and comprehensive insurance. If you cause a wreck which damages another person's life or property, you would be liable for their expenses. Again, with enough assets of your own, you would not need liability insurance.
Should you have to enter a nursing home, you would pay upwards of $50,000 a year for the privilege. The average stay in a nursing home that exceeds 90 days is three years. So, if you had $200,000 lying around, you could absorb the expense even with inflation. Medical bills can be extremely high, but with a few million dollars (let's say five) in your account, you could probably absorb them. With that much money, you could easily generate an annual passive income of $200,000. You would not need disability income insurance, which is designed to replace earned income. And, when you die, there would be ample funds for your survivors to handle final expenses and their own living expenses. So, the person who needs insurance is one without unlimited resources. They must find a way to mitigate or share the risks.
Since not everyone goes to the hospital or the nursing home or becomes disabled, some of those risks could be retained even without unlimited resources. Everybody, however, dies. A person who is earning an income of $50,000 a year and wishes to provide for his or her family would need to carry about $750,000 in total death benefit to cover final expenses and provide an income for his or family for 15 years. A person who does not care about his family obviously would not carry any life insurance. Let's assume you care and do not have unlimited resources. You would look for a way to share the risk. That is why people buy insurance of any kind – to transfer the risk to an entity that does have vast resources. And they must have the resources to pay the claim when it comes due. You would be quite upset as would your survivors, if at the time of your death the insurance company would not or could not pay. You WANT your insurance company to be rich – to have large reserves of money so that they can fulfill the terms of the contract. There are rating companies that evaluate the ability of companies to pay. The two best known are A.M. Best and Standard and Poor's. A. M. Best ratings range from A++ to B+ for secure companies and from B to F for vulnerable companies (with S for suspended rating in some cases). Standard and Poor's highest rating is AAA. Whereas an A+ from A.M. Best is the second highest rating, the same rating from Standard and Poor is the fifth level.
Insurance companies hire mathematicians called actuaries to calculate the correct premium to charge for the policy. They consult mortality tables to determine the percentage of a given population that are likely to die in any given year. For a generic male of age 23, one would expect about 151 deaths in 100,000 people. On the other hand, a population of generic males age 70 would expect about 2729.5 deaths that same year. An insurance company covering the young population (let's assume all have a $1,000,000 policy for simplicity) would have to have $151,000,000 in reserves to pay the expected claims. A company insuring the older population would need $2,729,500,000 to pay the claims. Ignoring for the moment the other expenses of the company, the first group of 100,000 people would need to pay an annual premium of at least $1510 for the company to break even. The older group would have to pay a minimum premium of $27,295 per year. What I have just described is the principle of term insurance. The premiums would be adjusted upward for a non-generic male (smoker, heart disease, diabetes, etc.). A term insurance policy that has expired has no value to anyone. If the policy expires before you do, there is no death benefit for the survivors. Guaranteed renewable term policies can be continued in force (usually to age 70) by the insured making the age-adjusted payments of the original classification. That is, even if they do develop heart disease or some other ailment that would increase the likelihood of mortality, they continue to pay the generic rate. A non-renewable term policy expires at the end of the contract period and the insured must qualify for the new rate with his or her current risk factors.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Eat Right. Be Fit. Die Anyway.
This title was a T-shirt inscription that I saw when taking my mother-in-love to have a carotid ultrasound. It reminds us that life is fatal. As one wag put it "You'll never get out alive." Or as the Bible says "it is appointed to man once to die…"
If any of you followed the link above, you know I left out part of that quotation (of course, the ellipsis tells you something was omitted, but the link tells you what was left out). In my not always humble opinion, the omission is the whole point. My first wife died several years ago from ovarian cancer – that is what the death certificate says. Each of us dies from something even though G*d installed a healing program in our bodies called the immune system. The body is fully capable of repairing minor damage (broken bone, laceration, infection) on its own as long as the immune system is intact. At some point, through lack of "the will to live" or perhaps through a direct attack on the system or from the cumulative effects of life ("old age") or fear, the immune system stops doing its job and something will be listed as the "cause of death." When the spirit departs the body, the body dies.
I don't mean for this to be a downer. I thought of using Dave and Blarney (Dave and Blarney Discuss Life and Death Part 1), and I still might follow the Health Care series with that as kind of a natural segue. But first I wanted to explain how I got there. When my first wife died, we were attending a "Charismatic" church that believes in the today healing power of God. Most Christian churches believe that it is G*d's will for people to be well (why do Baptists build hospitals and churches offer prayers for the sick?). We prayed for healing, we searched the scriptures for healing, we listened to tapes of healing, and she died anyway. I'm sure there was more we could have done. I'm sure there was more I could have done. She lived two years longer than the oncologist thought she would, but she wearied of the fight. She told me while we were in the hospital for what turned out to be the last time "I want to go home." Thinking that she meant our earthly home, I was calling to make arrangements for hospice care when she slipped out. Even though the doctors made an effort to revive her, she was gone. Earlier she had seen a vision of people dancing a "funny dance" as she called it. They were in the corner of the room, but of course not visible to me. And then she was gone. I was devastated. Why had she died despite our and the physician's best efforts? At the funeral the pastor was honest enough to say "I don't know."
I can tell you now that I was angry at G*d, angry at myself, angry at the "faith" people, just angry. Fortunately for me, my son was living with us. He had been a great help through the battle, assisting with moving Sharon from the upstairs bedroom to the family room and back again. He had prepared a bed for Sharon to sleep in when we went home from the hospital. But that wasn't the home to which Sharon had referred. If not for him and my granddaughter, Brianna, I might not have survived the next several months. We would weep together as we watched home videos. She would come and sit on my lap and we would hug. I needed that. The two inside dogs were a great comfort to me also. We had prayed and Sharon had died anyway. Some reporter had once told Oral Roberts "I happen to know that you prayed for so and so and she died." His reply was "Son, everybody I ever prayed for dies at one time or another." Oral Roberts never claimed to heal anyone – G*d healed through him. People criticized him for building a hospital, but he understood that all healing comes from G*d. And I understand that, too. G*d is the source, first of the immune system, then of the knowledge of the body granted to doctors, and of the gifts of healing. For the sensitivities of my Jewish readers, I omit the vowel just as the early writers presented the YHWH without vowels.
And here is the beginning point: either G*d exists or He doesn't. I can respect the agnostic who is not sure. The atheist is a conceited
fool. For most people there is ample evidence of G*d's existence in nature. The atheist, in effect, says "I have seen all there is to see and know all there is to know and G*d is nowhere to be found." In his arrogance, the atheist claims the attributes of G*d for himself (omniscience, omnipresence, etc.). He is his own god. So let me state that I know I am not smart enough to be YHWH, but that I believe He exists. I have seen His hand on my life and the lives of others. I also believe the Bible is His word and that it means what it says. I have learned, too, that a walk with YHWH is an intensely personal journey. From sin to faith, each person is on his or her own (I think it no coincidence that the center of "sin", "faith" and "believe" is "I"). No one sins for someone else, and no one has faith for someone else. And no one knows the condition of another's heart. What I say may help you (I hope it does), but the thoughts come from me.
Well, no they don't. I probably have never had an original thought in my life. What I mean to say is these are the thoughts that help me. They come from YHWH or other people (through books or messages), and I have internalized them. After this life, there is another and left to my own devices I would not have a pleasant one. Thank YHWH for Jesus. I wish I could hold myself up as a paragon of virtue. I really want to be one, but I am not. I know me and I know my faults and my failures – as a father, a husband, and a person. Paul thought he was the chief of sinners, but I think I have him beat. I need a Savior and thank YHWH, I have one. I was a sinner, I got saved by grace and I am a child of the living G*d. I still fail, but I can go on and (in the words of the Army) be all I can be in Christ, the Messiah. And when I die (which I surely shall someday in spite of diet, exercise, and prayer) I have the expectation of a great afterlife. I hope you do, too.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
My Granddaughters
Oops. The video would not post. Try clicking the link.
Friday, March 16, 2007
The Wedding Party

My daughter, Michele, married Caesar Espinoza in Las Vegas. Although I was unable to attend, my son, Scott, carried me along by cell phone. So I was able to give her away at the appropriate time. I thought some of you would be interested in seeing the wedding party. Michele's friend, Ava Rose, was the maid of honor.
You Easter, I say Resurrection Day
But, of course, we can see the fruits of this resurrection in the changed lives of not only the original apostles and believers, but those we know who have been born again.
And since this is the most important Holy Day or holiday, you will begin to see - actually we have already seen - attacks on this doctrine. Last year it was the Da Vinci Code. This year it is the Lost Tomb of Jesus. I find that the following two postings do an admirable job or stating the truth. Please read them in their entirety and enjoy.
What Do We Mean When We Say "Christ is Risen?" by Fr. Theodore Stylianopoulos
Why do you seek the living one among the dead? Some remarks on "The Lost Tomb of Jesus" Rev. Eugen J. Pentiuc, PhD, ThD
You will see a lucid debunking of the film's basis.
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Some of my favorite reads
I have often let my day job encroach on my evenings. I have even let my family take precedence over my blog.
So, for those of you who come by just to see if there is something new, I thought I would point you to some classics.
Of course, you know that the inventor of the internet and role model for Love Story has produced his own documentary [coughing] called An Inconvenient Truth. Liberal Larry has provided an in-depth review of it:
That’s the “inconvenient truth” that Al Gore tries to awaken us to in his monumental new film. A triumph at Cannes even without any gay sex scenes, An Inconvenient Truth features a colorful ensemble of A-list climatologists and environmental experts, their weighty words and elaborate costumes lending credibility to what would otherwise be blown off as just another bearded lady in the circus sideshow of Al Gore’s mind. However, it is Al Gore himself who steals the show as the reluctant hero who would save humanity from its own greedy excesses, even as he fights his own personal demons. Fitted with a pair of recycled aluminum claws, Gore slashes his way through the veil of right-wing lies and exposes the world to the hard, inconvenient truth they’ve ignored for far too long. Where was this Al Gore during the 2000 presidential debates? Where was he during the entire election? No matter. The same Al Gore whose rugged outdoorsy machismo and pressed flannel shirts won the hearts of butch lesbians everywhere has returned…and with a vengeance.
Of course, you might want to read up on the facts:
The Real "Inconvenient Truth".
For background, follow the below links.
"Is Global Warming Always Bad?," by Patrick J Michaels, November 7, 2004
"Blowin' in the Wind," by Patrick J Michaels, August 3, 2005
"Thar She Blows," by Patrick J Michaels, August 20, 2005
"Warming Unlikely Culprit with Hurricanes" by Patrick J Michaels, October 24, 2005
Thursday, December 01, 2005
OK. I'm Able to Sit Longer...
Health Update
I will try to not be away so long in the future. I had a slight setback last week, but I am mending well. I should be able to return to work by the middle or end of January. I am walking longer and can sit at the computer longer. Thanks to all of you for your prayers and thoughts. Thanks, also, for the birthday wishes.
About the WOT
I am so glad that there is at least one Democrat with some spine and some sense. Joe Lieberman wrote an excellent piece for the Opinion Journal. This took a lot of guts, because he is bucking not only the media, but the rest of his party. Read the article.
Iraqi people are in reach of a watershed transformation from the primitive, killing tyranny of Saddam to modern, self-governing, self-securing nationhood--unless the great American military that has given them and us this unexpected opportunity is prematurely withdrawn. ...
None of these remarkable changes would have happened without the coalition forces led by the U.S. And, I am convinced, almost all of the progress in Iraq and throughout the Middle East will be lost if those forces are withdrawn faster than the Iraqi military is capable of securing the country.
In case you missed it, the president gave a great speech at Annapolis yesterday. In the speech, he outlines the strategy for victory. Also posted on the White House site is a fact sheet about training the Iraqi security forces. The president quotes Senator Lieberman:
As Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman said recently, setting an artificial timetable would "discourage our troops because it seems to be heading for the door. It will encourage the terrorists, it will confuse the Iraqi people."Senator Lieberman is right. Setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would send a message across the world that America is a weak and an unreliable ally. Setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would send a signal to our enemies -- that if they wait long enough, America will cut and run and abandon its friends. And setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would vindicate the terrorists' tactics of beheadings and suicide bombings and mass murder -- and invite new attacks on America. To all who wear the uniform, I make you this pledge: America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your Commander-in-Chief.
One more thing
In case you want to help our soldiers and support our troops, you can adopt a soldier at Rush Limbaugh's site. Do it.
Sunday, November 20, 2005
Heart Attack Notes
Shortly after 5:00 AM on October 29, I woke with an unpleasant pressure in my chest. I took two Tums thinking it might be gas pains. My wife woke and said I didn't look good. Since the pain did not want to leave, I agreed that I should maybe go to the emergency room at Prattville's only hospital. We also agreed that maybe calling 911 would be appropriate. All this commotion woke my mother-in-love who had been living with us for a little over a year. She suggested I take a nitroglycerin capsule in case it was a heart attack. She said if not, I would get a headache. I moved downstairs so that the emergency guys would not have to carry me down. I was sitting on the bottom steps when they arrived. I had no headache, but an elephant had decided to sit on my chest.
They assessed my situation and gave me some aspirin and another nitroglycerin capsule. After a short ride to the hospital, I was met by Dr. John Williams, who happened to be a cardiologist. He rapidly diagnosed me as having a heart attack and sent me to Jackson Hospital in Montgomery. They took me directly to the catheterization lab where he perfomed an angioplasty. That relieved the chest pain completely. I was awake for that procedure. I was also awake when Dr. Stephen Kwan, a thoracic surgeon, arrived and informed me that I had rather severe blockages in five arteries and he was going to operate on me. Somewhere between the cath lab and the operating room, the sleepy medicine took over. I was not awake for the chest surgery.
I did awake with a breathing tube down my throat, pain in my chest and what felt like bruised lungs. Every time the breathing machine pumped oxygen, it thumped agains my left lung or something. Anyway, the pain there was much worse than the pain on the way to the hospital and it kept beating on me. In spite of that, I drifted in and out of sleep. I remember having the thought, "It's a good thing they did this all at once, because there is no way I want to do this again."
I drifted in and out of consciousness until Sunday when they told me I had to breathe on my own if I wanted that breathing tube out. Later that day I was breathing well enough that they did take the tube out. It still hurt to breathe, but at least I could almost talk. I spent another night in the ICU before they thought I was doing well enough to go up to the ward. My precious wife, Pat, had stayed at the hospital that whole time. She would stay in the room with me until I was discharged.
Once in the cardiac care unit (3 West), I had a pretty fixed daily routine. They offered me food for lunch and supper, but I was not ready to eat. I did eat starting with breakfast Tuesday. They got me out of bed and sitting up as soon as they could on Tuesday. I learned to sit and rise without using my arms, only the leg muscles. I walked with assistance around the nurse's station at least once each day. Each day I was making progress, but there was something the doctor did not like about my lungs, so I went back to surgery on Thursday. So much for going home by the weekend.
One of the strangest things to me was the perception of time and space. When I closed my eyes, I did not see dark. I saw what appeared to be a stucco wall that looked like it was within arms reach. The wall had discernible grainy patterns. Time seemed to drag by at night. I was awake about half the time, seemingly sleeping a minute at a time the first night and gradually sleeping about five minutes at a time. When I came home I was up to sleeping an hour at a time. Even now, I sleep about three hours at a time.
I walk about an hour each day, so my time alternates between sleeping, breathing (using a special incentive device that shows what volume of air you are moving), walking, eating, and sitting with my legs up. Today I saw the doctor for a follow up. He removed the stitch from my abdomen and the staples from my leg, listened to my lungs and checked my blood pressure. He seemed pleased and schedule me for another visit in two months.
OK, I promise not to mention this anymore.
Sunday, November 13, 2005
In Case You Were Wondering...
Two weeks ago yesterday, I got up at 5AM and was not feeling well. We cleverly called 911 and some nice gentlemen escorted me to the local hospital where the duty officer happened to be a cardiologist. He sent me immediately to a larger hospital because I was having a heart attack.
Five bypasses later , I was moved to the recovery room, where I spent the night. Then they moved me to the cardiac recovery unit where I spent the week. I came home on Tuesday, but did not feel a lot like blogging or answering eMail.
Each day I get better. Today I was able to sit up enough to compose this. Developing...
Sunday, May 08, 2005
Happy Mother's Day
My wife at the time later succumbed to Ovarian cancer after a six year battle. She died on July 3, 2002 - one day before the nation's independence celebration. I didn't celebrate much that year. Maybe some day I will do a tribute to her and my mother. Words fail me at the moment.
My son got married yesterday. He and his bride are on their way to Jamaica for their honeymoon.
If you came to this blog looking for wisdom or humor today, I apologize. I am just thinking of how much my life has changed in the last three years. I married a lovely woman in 2003 and we will celebrate our 2nd anniversary this year. I went from having one grandchild to having six. With my son's new bride, we extended the family even further. Life is good.
Happy Mother's Day.